Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Open topics on the Contest itself, to include results-watch threads and other items of note.
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gower21
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby gower21 » Sat Apr 21, 2012 6:27 pm

Martin L. Shoemaker wrote:
DavidK wrote:
E.CaimanSands wrote:
Well we have gators and donkeys and bees. And Evil Martin. wotf002


Agree wotf008 But we are so lucky that we have only one Evil Martin. Imagine if they cloned him wotf008


The thing about Multiple Online Personality Disorder is the emphasis on Multiple. You've only met Evil Martin; and you've seen The UML Guy's picture, though you probably didn't realize it. I think we had a brief appearance by Uncle Martin (the professional bad influence). But you have yet to meet Operative M (an alien spy reporting on Earth's geek culture), Martin Skvrsky (irrascible spaceport barkeeper), or any of the lesser personae.

Cloning personae is much less work than cloning persons!


There is also SOMEONE on here who is Bob Writer....or someone who is Bob Writer that then pretends to be a regular forum member. Either one.

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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby DavidK » Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:08 pm

hazlett wrote:In an effort to focus on more positive news, I wanted to send out a little update (and query) on who's left in the contest.

So it looks like there is either one more round of rejections on the way, or the rejections are mostly complete (assuming fewer than 1,000 contest entrants).


So to add fuel to the pondering results fire, I reviewed the previous 6 Quarter's results:

Given the reliable 3 Winners / 5 Finalists and 10 Semi-Finalists each Quarter, the only variability is with SHMs and HMs.
W 3 3 3 3 3 3
F 5 5 5 5 5 5
SF 10 10 10 10 10 10
SHM 5 4 11 9 6 4
HM 85 77 84 75 60 82

Total (inc winners etc) 108 99 121 102 84 104

So that's an average of 103 places (based on n= 6)

I've heard two conflicting reports, one was HMs are the top 10% of the comp entries (from a winner) but the other was from KD on Hatrack where she mentions 15%.

So if we do the sums on both 15% and 10% we get a different averaged contestant entrants, and this then that would be (roughly) and I'm sure this is nowhere near exact ..

Contestant entries based on 15%
720 660 807 680 560 694

Average of contestants (based on n=6) with a total population of 4121= 687 per Quarter.

15% of this is 103 (no surprises there)


Contestant entries based on 10%
1080 990 1210 1020 840 1040

Average of contestants (based on n=6) with a total population of 6180 = 1030 per Quarter.

What does this all mean ...

well several things if the 15% rule is true then you have a 1 in 7 (6.6) chance in placing
if it's 10% rule then its a 1 in 10 chance in placing.

For now I'm going with KDs 15%...

IF you assume that all the rejections are not over, and assume that the list of us on the forum is also a true sample (although I tend to think it skewed to more in that place) but ignoring that initially, then of the 23 names (I included mine wotf007 ) it means that there should be about 4 of us that place.

Doesn't sound very promising.

It doesn't take into account that a number of rejections have been handed out so our sample is doubly skewed. One - from us being on here and there being so many people who have placed in the past.

Two - we're still here after a figure somewhere between 50% and 80% of rejections are already handed out (and this is a wild assumption now that impacts on what I say below - but with some Duotrope, perhaps it could be hardened up) , and then there is that 1 in 6.6 initial figure (which is also averaged).

So, if we ASSUME that 60% of rejections have gone out, then using the figures above it means that 412 rejections have gone out (I have no idea what this figure might really be)

That means that the new population is 275 with that previous average of 103 places being handed out.

So, that now means a chance of 1 in 3 (2.66) chance for the rest to get a place.

IF we go back to the 23 of us (note I include myself wotf007 ) then with a 1 in 2.66 chance is 9 of us to place.

If we skew that chance because of the previous wins, and that we encourage each other to be better and WRITE! WRITE!! WRITE!!!,

then I'll just for fun increase our chance from 1 in 2.66 to 1 in 2.

That would mean 11 of us to place. wotf017 But then 60% of story rejects may not have come out, and we could be back to 4 of us again ...

So after all that I'm off to do some more speculation, but in my Q3 story submission ...

If you read all this, then I commend you but remember that there lies damn lies and statistics...
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby Kary English » Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:39 pm

IMHO, we're way past 60% of the rejections. The first rejection recorded here was March 2, and I believe there were some dubious ones on Duotrope on Feb 22, then some for-sure ones on Feb 28. Regrettably, I didn't record all of them before the 30-day window started dropping them off the ticker, but think we're into the 70s (or higher) as far as number of rejections on Duotrope. (Hazlett might have an official tally, or Grayson, or they might be able to construct the tally based on their previous calculations).

The good folks at Duo estimate 10 - 12 submissions for every one recorded in the system, so if we estimate 70 recorded responses, that give us 700 - 840 entries processed.

Personally, I think we've passed the 80% mark.

ETA: On March 21, Grayson recorded 39 Duotrope responses as of that date. There are 33 responses on Duo right now, dated from March 28 forward. That gives us 72 responses not counting any in the gap from March 21 to March 27.
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby hazlett » Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:49 pm

So here's the new list of survivors (including DavidK wotf011 )

Tina (gower21)
Corbin (1xF, 2xSF, 7xHM)
Francis Bruno (1xSF)
Amanda McCarter (1xSF, 1xSHM, 5xHM)
Martin Shoemaker (1xF, 1xSF, 2xHM)
Izanobu (1xSF, 2xSHM, 6xHM)
Grayson (3xHM)
Marina (2xF, 2xHM)
Kary
Dustin (1xF, 2xHM)
Jennifer Hicks (1xSF, 1xSHM, 6xHM)
anarresti
permanentnovice
joshpotter
hazlett
The Happy Snappy Gator (1xSF, 2xHM)
Isto
Preston (2xHM)
gwasch
AlistairKimble (1xF, 1xHM)
Delli
Ember
DavidK (1xHM)

I think the assumption that 60% of rejections going out is actually WAY too conservative. I'd estimate (based on the assumption that 10% of contestants report on Duotrope and 1,000 submissions) that over 94% of the rejections have gone out (based on a ~90% rejection rate on Duotrope or the 10% estimate of people placing). In other words, 900 out of 1,000 people would receive straight rejections. Since there have been 85-86 rejections on Duotrope thus far, we can assume that 850 to 860 rejections have gone out overall. If we increase the proportion of people placing to 15%, then 100% of the rejections have gone out (i.e., 85% of 1,000 is 850).

If 850 to 860 people have already been rejected, we have 140 - 150 "survivors". If we assume that 10% is the total proportion that places, then 40 to 50 people will still receive rejections. Therefore the probability of getting rejected at this point for survivors would be (50/150 to 40/140) or 33.3% to 28.6%. Put another way, their current chance of placing now is 66.7% to 71.4%. Of course, the chance of being a winner is still only 3/150 to 3/140, or 2 - 2.1% at this point.

If we use your lower estimate of 687, then the odds become even more favorable for the survivors. That means ~618 would receive rejections. If you use the 10% assumption on Duotrope, than 100% of the rejections have been sent out, and we are done. In other words, the probability of being rejected at this point is 0%.
Sean Patrick Hazlett
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HM x 8
Stories sold: 34 original stories and 6 reprints
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby Kary English » Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:53 pm

Re: odds of rejection - alas, we paper submitters are outliers from the get-go. Our rejection odds can't be calculated on time because we are read last, after all the e-subs have been read, and because we are often notified by snail mail, which may arrive after the finalists have been notified and/or named. Sometimes paper subs don't hear before the blog post and we just look for our names there. There is one confirmed paper rejection among us, and I believe he heard this round.

So while I'd love to believe that 0% chance of rejection, for us LAMPS (last minute paper submitters), it just ain't so.
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby hazlett » Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:02 pm

Kary James wrote:Re: odds of rejection - alas, we paper submitters are outliers from the get-go. Our rejection odds can't be calculated on time because we are read last, after all the e-subs have been read, and because we are often notified by snail mail. There is one confirmed paper rejection among us, and I believe he heard this round.

So while I'd love to believe that 0% chance of rejection, for us LAMPS (last minute paper submitters), it just ain't so.


To be clear, the 0% chance of rejection only refers to the case in which there are 687 submissions. I still think it is closer to 1,000. If that is the case, then I agree that there are still some rejections to come. Moreover, I estimate it to be about 50-60 more rejections (or 5-6% of the total 1,000). Furthermore, of the 406 submissions currently on Duotrope (for various quarters to be sure), about 4% of these submissions were postal submissions. In other words, the number of those who made postal submissions is about 2/3 to 4/5 of the remaining rejection total, which foots with your hypothesis that the postal subs are probably the last to go. wotf009
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby DavidK » Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:39 pm

Kary James wrote:Personally, I think we've passed the 80% mark.

ETA: On March 21, Grayson recorded 39 Duotrope responses as of that date. There are 33 responses on Duo right now, dated from March 28 forward. That gives us 72 responses not counting any in the gap from March 21 to March 27.


If you right Kary, and I redo the figures based on 80%, then it becomes 1 in 1.3 people, which means 3 out of every 4 left, or about 17 of us. Given the skew I'd say 19 out of 23 in that case wotf008.

But my figures are averaged.
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby dantzel » Sat Apr 21, 2012 10:23 pm

These numbers make my head hurt.

But then, the only numbers that really get me excited are the numbers on a check. wotf007

Good thing some people are good at and interested in these things out! Some of us (me) just can't do much probability beyond 'maybe, maybe not.'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoM8bHQt ... ure=relmfu
This is what my brain does - watch at 5:36 :-)
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby DavidK » Sun Apr 22, 2012 12:24 am

hazlett wrote:So here's the new list of survivors (including DavidK wotf011 )

If we use your lower estimate of 687, then the odds become even more favorable for the survivors. That means ~618 would receive rejections. If you use the 10% assumption on Duotrope, than 100% of the rejections have been sent out, and we are done. In other words, the probability of being rejected at this point is 0%.


The 687 was an average based on 15% of the placed entries average of 103, but I believe that the numbers are probably in the low thousand really and that there is another round of rejections to come, possibly even two batches.

I'm still hedging my bets on less of us, eg 9 will place, not my wildly suggested 19.

And your 50/150 is 1 in 3, which would be 7 people rejected = 16 placed (the other is not significantly different if you round it up from 6.57.)

If you flip a coin then somewhere between 16 and 19 of us :)

But I'm sticking with my 9 .

I'm hoping that this does mean that you shouldn't forget my name off the list during the next quarter otherwise there will be more stats wotf010
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby izanobu » Sun Apr 22, 2012 1:34 am

These percentages are sort of meaningless. One, the number of Honorable Mentions varies. There might be none this quarter (small chance, but still, it could happen). Two, a story that does not fit what the contest wants will always have a 0% chance of winning. A story that is awesome and fits the contest won't have a 1/1000+ chance, but probably a chance more like 1 in 8 (because it goes directly into the finalist pile).

I am neither so humble nor so egotistical as to presume the story I submitted is in either of the above categories. I'm pretty comfortable guessing, provided KD was still reading when my entry crossed the judging pile, I have a 100% chance of getting an Honorable mention or better. I would say how I know this, but I don't want to do anything that might jeopardize the anonymity of the stories.

It comes down the quality and suitability of each individual story, not down to math. Sorry. wotf008

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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby Jess » Sun Apr 22, 2012 1:44 am

izanobu wrote:These percentages are sort of meaningless. One, the number of Honorable Mentions varies. There might be none this quarter (small chance, but still, it could happen). Two, a story that does not fit what the contest wants will always have a 0% chance of winning. A story that is awesome and fits the contest won't have a 1/1000+ chance, but probably a chance more like 1 in 8 (because it goes directly into the finalist pile).

I am neither so humble nor so egotistical as to presume the story I submitted is in either of the above categories. I'm pretty comfortable guessing, provided KD was still reading when my entry crossed the judging pile, I have a 100% chance of getting an Honorable mention or better. I would say how I know this, but I don't want to do anything that might jeopardize the anonymity of the stories.

It comes down the quality and suitability of each individual story, not down to math. Sorry. wotf008

Hey, some people enjoy fiddling with the math. Not my thing, and obviously not yours, but to each his own, I say. Let 'em have a ball with it.

Incidentally, guys, if it helps your numbers any, I haven't seen a response yet either. I didn't say anything when this first started because my computer had died and I spent about a week and a half without one, disoriented and confused, curled up in the fetal position...or possibly playing Skyrim.
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby Martin L. Shoemaker » Sun Apr 22, 2012 2:05 am

A little Supertramp running through my mind tonight...

But at night when all the world's asleep
The questions run so deep
For such a simple mind.

Won't you please, please tell we what we've learned?
I know it sounds absurd.
Please tell me who I am...
Who I am...
Who I am...
Who I am...

Who's all thinking so logical?
Yeah...
D-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-digital...
Yeah! One, two, three, FIVE!
Ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh yeah!
Ooh, it's getting unbelievable.
Yeah!
D-d-d-d-di-
Ooh...
http://Shoemaker.Space
Other worlds from award-winning author Martin L. Shoemaker

WRITE! WRITE! WRITE! WRITE! WRITE!
SUBMIT! SUBMIT! SUBMIT! SUBMIT! SUBMIT!
REPEAT! REPEAT! REPEAT! REPEAT! REPEAT!
Patience. Patience. Patience. Patience. Patience.
NNiNN

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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby hazlett » Sun Apr 22, 2012 10:38 am

I added your name to the list, Jess. wotf010

Tina (gower21)
Corbin (1xF, 2xSF, 7xHM)
Francis Bruno (1xSF)
Amanda McCarter (1xSF, 1xSHM, 5xHM)
Martin Shoemaker (1xF, 1xSF, 2xHM)
Izanobu (1xSF, 2xSHM, 6xHM)
Grayson (3xHM)
Marina (2xF, 2xHM)
Kary
Dustin (1xF, 2xHM)
Jennifer Hicks (1xSF, 1xSHM, 6xHM)
anarresti
permanentnovice
joshpotter
hazlett
The Happy Snappy Gator (1xSF, 2xHM)
Isto
Preston (2xHM)
gwasch
AlistairKimble (1xF, 1xHM)
Delli
Ember
DavidK (1xHM)
Jess

DavidK,

I agree with your projections that you based on my numbers. If there are 1,000 entrants, then 16-17 folks on this list should place. If there are more than 1,000 entrants, the numbers get more pessimistic. To get to your number of 9 (which is also quite reasonable), I estimate that there would have to be about 1,150 entrants (and a 90% rejection rate). The numbers change quite a bit for small incremental moves in the total number of entrants.
Sean Patrick Hazlett
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HM x 8
Stories sold: 34 original stories and 6 reprints
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby MedicalAuthor » Sun Apr 22, 2012 10:54 am

Mine got rejected this past week and I promptly submitted it to The Colored Lens. They aren't pro, and don't pay much at all, but they are relatively hard to get into (~1% on Duotrope) and I've already piled up a ton of rejections for them. Long story short, they just told me they really like the story, the other editors do as well, and they are holding it for voting. I should know within a month if it's published!

So, to everyone who has gotten rejected thus far, I urge you to submit, submit, submit!

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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby hazlett » Sun Apr 22, 2012 11:28 am

izanobu wrote:These percentages are sort of meaningless. One, the number of Honorable Mentions varies. There might be none this quarter (small chance, but still, it could happen). Two, a story that does not fit what the contest wants will always have a 0% chance of winning. A story that is awesome and fits the contest won't have a 1/1000+ chance, but probably a chance more like 1 in 8 (because it goes directly into the finalist pile).

I am neither so humble nor so egotistical as to presume the story I submitted is in either of the above categories. I'm pretty comfortable guessing, provided KD was still reading when my entry crossed the judging pile, I have a 100% chance of getting an Honorable mention or better. I would say how I know this, but I don't want to do anything that might jeopardize the anonymity of the stories.

It comes down the quality and suitability of each individual story, not down to math. Sorry. wotf008


Izanobu,

You are right regarding each individual submission and how it is judged, but wrong in the aggregate when it comes to interpreting probabilities. These percentages are not meaningless. Moreover, HMs do vary, but they don't vary as much as one would think. Over the past 8 quarters there's been an average of 80 HMs (not including Silver HMs) per quarter with a standard deviation of only 10. The probability that there are zero HMs this quarter is 7.2x10^-16 (i.e., virtually zero). Without any specific knowledge of any individual participant, you can still make fairly accurate predictions about probabilities at this point in the contest. For instance, I can say with a fairly high degree of confidence that at least 9 people will place on that list of 24, without knowing anything else about them. I can even say (albeit with less statistical confidence) that at least 16-17 will. Based on previous data, I estimate that the contest has between 560 to 1,210 submissions per quarter. So, in the scenario where there are 1,210 submissions, only 8 people on the list will place. In a scenario where there are only 560 entrants, all of them will place.

I'm not a gambler, but if I were, I would bet good money that at least 8 people on that list make it. How do you think Vegas stays in business? Individual gamblers may have different skill sets, but in the aggregate, the house always wins. It's not luck. It's mathematics.
Last edited by hazlett on Sun Apr 22, 2012 11:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby hazlett » Sun Apr 22, 2012 11:29 am

MedicalAuthor wrote:Mine got rejected this past week and I promptly submitted it to The Colored Lens. They aren't pro, and don't pay much at all, but they are relatively hard to get into (~1% on Duotrope) and I've already piled up a ton of rejections for them. Long story short, they just told me they really like the story, the other editors do as well, and they are holding it for voting. I should know within a month if it's published!

So, to everyone who has gotten rejected thus far, I urge you to submit, submit, submit!


Here's to hoping they publish your story! wotf010
Sean Patrick Hazlett
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HM x 8
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby dantzel » Sun Apr 22, 2012 11:39 am

MedicalAuthor wrote:Mine got rejected this past week and I promptly submitted it to The Colored Lens. They aren't pro, and don't pay much at all, but they are relatively hard to get into (~1% on Duotrope) and I've already piled up a ton of rejections for them. Long story short, they just told me they really like the story, the other editors do as well, and they are holding it for voting. I should know within a month if it's published!

So, to everyone who has gotten rejected thus far, I urge you to submit, submit, submit!


I'm crossing my fingers for you!!!
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby AlistairKimble » Sun Apr 22, 2012 12:43 pm

113-day personal rejection from Writers of the Future Contest on April 21.


An HM perhaps? Or just more erroneous duotroping?

Personally, I only think of Semi's and Finalists as being personal reject worthy. Though, I've seen people putting results other than winners and published finalists as acceptances in the past on duotrope, and that I don't understand at all.

wotf017

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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby hazlett » Sun Apr 22, 2012 1:35 pm

AlistairKimble wrote:
113-day personal rejection from Writers of the Future Contest on April 21.


An HM perhaps? Or just more erroneous duotroping?

Personally, I only think of Semi's and Finalists as being personal reject worthy. Though, I've seen people putting results other than winners and published finalists as acceptances in the past on duotrope, and that I don't understand at all.

wotf017


A fascinating proposition. I completely glossed over the personal rejection part. Very strange. I would think that the HMs would come in waves rather than in trickles. Who knows? I hope you're right.
Sean Patrick Hazlett
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HM x 8
Stories sold: 34 original stories and 6 reprints
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby E.CaimanSands » Sun Apr 22, 2012 1:37 pm

AlistairKimble wrote:
113-day personal rejection from Writers of the Future Contest on April 21.


An HM perhaps? Or just more erroneous duotroping?

Personally, I only think of Semi's and Finalists as being personal reject worthy. Though, I've seen people putting results other than winners and published finalists as acceptances in the past on duotrope, and that I don't understand at all.

wotf017


Indeed, I don't understand non-published entries being listed as acceptances. But I'll continue to add my HMs as personals. If the contest goes to all the trouble of snail mailing a shiny certificate all the way across the Atlantic that's personal enough for me. wotf007
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby AlistairKimble » Sun Apr 22, 2012 1:44 pm

E.CaimanSands wrote: But I'll continue to add my HMs as personals. If the contest goes to all the trouble of snail mailing a shiny certificate all the way across the Atlantic that's personal enough for me.


Well, when put like that, then I agree! wotf008
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby DavidK » Sun Apr 22, 2012 1:45 pm

izanobu wrote:
It comes down the quality and suitability of each individual story, not down to math. Sorry. wotf008


Your absolutely right Izanobu.

The maths isn't what's driving what we've being saying, the quality and suitably of the stories is driving it.

Absolutely. The maths isn't writing your best story for you either, it's not improving your craft, or making it just right for you to win. YOU do that by learning what type of stories this market wants, and by writing and submitting your very best story, every quarter, and not giving up.

The maths is merely recording the results of what has happened in the past to predict likely outcomes.

I'm sorry that some of this thread isn't your thing, I know how you feel, I sort of cringed earlier at all the placenta eating talk, but I let everyone have their fill wotf007 and we drifted to something else to Jibber Jabber about.
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby Alex Kane » Sun Apr 22, 2012 2:41 pm

These two phrases work interestingly together when taken out of context:

DavidK wrote: [...] all the placenta eating [...] I let everyone have their fill.

lol.
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby Martin L. Shoemaker » Sun Apr 22, 2012 3:14 pm

MedicalAuthor wrote:Mine got rejected this past week and I promptly submitted it to The Colored Lens. They aren't pro, and don't pay much at all, but they are relatively hard to get into (~1% on Duotrope) and I've already piled up a ton of rejections for them. Long story short, they just told me they really like the story, the other editors do as well, and they are holding it for voting. I should know within a month if it's published!

So, to everyone who has gotten rejected thus far, I urge you to submit, submit, submit!


Ah, the sweet voice of reason! Good luck!
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby Martin L. Shoemaker » Sun Apr 22, 2012 3:24 pm

AlistairKimble wrote:
113-day personal rejection from Writers of the Future Contest on April 21.


An HM perhaps? Or just more erroneous duotroping?

Personally, I only think of Semi's and Finalists as being personal reject worthy. Though, I've seen people putting results other than winners and published finalists as acceptances in the past on duotrope, and that I don't understand at all.

wotf017


Anything's possible. We can't rule out the possibility that they're wrapping up the results now. Assuming we go with your definition that a Semi counts as a personal rejection, maybe someone out there has received a Semi notice.

Services for K.D. are Tuesday, and it's safe to say that Joni will attend. But it's also clear that she's keeping the contest moving at the same time. I now believe we'll see a lot of results this week.
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby hazlett » Sun Apr 22, 2012 3:43 pm

Martin L. Shoemaker wrote:Anything's possible. We can't rule out the possibility that they're wrapping up the results now. Assuming we go with your definition that a Semi counts as a personal rejection, maybe someone out there has received a Semi notice.

Services for K.D. are Tuesday, and it's safe to say that Joni will attend. But it's also clear that she's keeping the contest moving at the same time. I now believe we'll see a lot of results this week.


Martin,

You've seen this thing play out multiple times. It's my understanding that Joni calls the Finalists first and then HMs and whatnot start coming out. Is this the way it typically plays out? If so, how long is the delay typically between finalist calls and HMs going out?
Sean Patrick Hazlett
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HM x 8
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby Kary English » Sun Apr 22, 2012 3:52 pm

This is my first quarter, but I know from obsessive reading that the HMs usually go out *before* the finalist calls. Additionally, finalists are sworn to secrecy, so even if they've already been called, they're not allowed to say.

So around finalist time, we all start to watch for formerly loquacious posters who suddenly go silent, and/or who suddenly stop avowing that they've heard nothing / are still waiting. ;)

Also, those Duo listings that show up a day or two after the main wave could be snail mail responses. They could also be someone recording the day they opened the thing instead of the day it arrived, or they could be errors, or aliens, or mass hysteria on our part. But they could also be snail mail. :D

I checked my snail mail on Friday, but haven't checked over the weekend (I have a PO box). Crickets.
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby hazlett » Sun Apr 22, 2012 4:03 pm

Kary James wrote:This is my first quarter, but I know from obsessive reading that the HMs usually go out *before* the finalist calls. Additionally, finalists are sworn to secrecy, so even if they've already been called, they're not allowed to say.

So around finalist time, we all start to watch for formerly loquacious posters who suddenly go silent, and/or who suddenly stop avowing that they've heard nothing / are still waiting. ;)

Also, those Duo listings that show up a day or two after the main wave could be snail mail responses. They could also be someone recording the day they opened the thing instead of the day it arrived, or they could be errors, or aliens, or mass hysteria on our part. But they could also be snail mail. :D

I checked my snail mail on Friday, but haven't checked over the weekend (I have a PO box). Crickets.


That's very helpful, Kary. Thank you!
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby Martin L. Shoemaker » Sun Apr 22, 2012 4:06 pm

hazlett wrote:You've seen this thing play out multiple times. It's my understanding that Joni calls the Finalists first and then HMs and whatnot start coming out. Is this the way it typically plays out? If so, how long is the delay typically between finalist calls and HMs going out?


hazlett,

I honestly wish I could answer your questions. When I joke that "there is no pattern", it's not entirely a joke. If there's a pattern, I haven't seen it yet. Q1 is only my fifth quarter in the contest, and every single one of them seems to have been different.

And when I got my Finalist call last year (March 28 for Q1), I was not yet aware of this forum. I was in fact pretty clueless about the contest as a whole. So I have no guess whether HM notices had gone out before my call or not.

I can tell you this much: if at all possible, Joni personally calls all Finalists; and they are all sworn to secrecy until the big announcement. This has sometimes led to delays when Finalists were hard to reach (such as military personnel deployed to combat zones). But even in those cases, I'm unclear whether they released any HM news before they called the last Finalist or not.

Of course, I don't pay much attention to the trends like you have, so I'm a very unreliable observer on all of this. Your understanding...

...that Joni calls the Finalists first and then HMs and whatnot start coming out.


...isn't something I noticed before this quarter; but I haven't paid attention. At all, seriously. But it does make sense with what I've seen, now that I think about it. So I would tentatively say that your understanding is correct.

As for this...

If so, how long is the delay typically between finalist calls and HMs going out?


...that's a question I couldn't answer. Maybe someone who was a Finalist last quarter has an idea what the timing was then. I just wasn't paying attention the one time I could've gathered some data.
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WRITE! WRITE! WRITE! WRITE! WRITE!
SUBMIT! SUBMIT! SUBMIT! SUBMIT! SUBMIT!
REPEAT! REPEAT! REPEAT! REPEAT! REPEAT!
Patience. Patience. Patience. Patience. Patience.
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Re: Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Postby AlistairKimble » Sun Apr 22, 2012 4:07 pm

It seems that every quarter since they've implemented the e-subs has been different.

In some quarters HM notifications lasted the entire time, and last quarter people were getting HMs fairly early on. Also, last quarter I know HMs were still going out even after I got my finalist call. This quarter seems to be different still in that it seems all the rejections are going out before we see any positives (though we have that one personal reject on duotrope).


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