hazlett wrote:In an effort to focus on more positive news, I wanted to send out a little update (and query) on who's left in the contest.
So it looks like there is either one more round of rejections on the way, or the rejections are mostly complete (assuming fewer than 1,000 contest entrants).
So to add fuel to the pondering results fire, I reviewed the previous 6 Quarter's results:
Given the reliable 3 Winners / 5 Finalists and 10 Semi-Finalists each Quarter, the only variability is with SHMs and HMs.
W 3 3 3 3 3 3
F 5 5 5 5 5 5
SF 10 10 10 10 10 10
SHM 5 4 11 9 6 4
HM 85 77 84 75 60 82
Total (inc winners etc) 108 99 121 102 84 104
So that's an average of 103 places (based on n= 6)
I've heard two conflicting reports, one was HMs are the top 10% of the comp entries (from a winner) but the other was from KD on Hatrack where she mentions 15%.
So if we do the sums on both 15% and 10% we get a different averaged contestant entrants, and this then that would be (roughly) and I'm sure this is nowhere near exact ..
Contestant entries based on 15%
720 660 807 680 560 694
Average of contestants (based on n=6) with a total population of 4121= 687 per Quarter.
15% of this is 103 (no surprises there)
Contestant entries based on 10%
1080 990 1210 1020 840 1040
Average of contestants (based on n=6) with a total population of 6180 = 1030 per Quarter.
What does this all mean ...
well several things if the 15% rule is true then you have a 1 in 7 (6.6) chance in placing
if it's 10% rule then its a 1 in 10 chance in placing.
For now I'm going with KDs 15%...
IF you assume that all the rejections are not over, and assume that the list of us on the forum is also a true sample (although I tend to think it skewed to more in that place) but ignoring that initially, then of the 23 names (I included mine
) it means that there should be about 4 of us that place.
Doesn't sound very promising.
It doesn't take into account that a number of rejections have been handed out so our sample is doubly skewed. One - from us being on here and there being so many people who have placed in the past.
Two - we're still here after a figure somewhere between 50% and 80% of rejections are already handed out (and this is a wild assumption now that impacts on what I say below - but with some Duotrope, perhaps it could be hardened up) , and then there is that 1 in 6.6 initial figure (which is also averaged).
So, if we ASSUME that 60% of rejections have gone out, then using the figures above it means that 412 rejections have gone out (I have no idea what this figure might really be)
That means that the new population is 275 with that previous average of 103 places being handed out.
So, that now means a chance of 1 in 3 (2.66) chance for the rest to get a place.
IF we go back to the 23 of us (note I include myself
) then with a 1 in 2.66 chance is 9 of us to place.
If we skew that chance because of the previous wins, and that we encourage each other to be better and WRITE! WRITE!! WRITE!!!,
then I'll just for fun increase our chance from 1 in 2.66 to 1 in 2.
That would mean 11 of us to place.
But then 60% of story rejects may not have come out, and we could be back to 4 of us again ...
So after all that I'm off to do some more speculation, but in my Q3 story submission ...
If you read all this, then I commend you but remember that there lies damn lies and statistics...