Martin L. Shoemaker wrote:
Where's hazlett? We need hazlett! What this thread needs now is some number crunching!
I do believe I've been summoned...
So, I got an HM.
On the plus side, it's the second science fiction story I've ever written and the first I've ever submitted anywhere (I self-rejected the first one, because it...well, it simply wasn't any good).
On the minus side, it was pretty darn creative. I don't know if I'll ever be able to come up with something that creative again. That said, I'll just fire it off to another market. Even when submitting it, I knew there was a risk it was a bit too dark. That's probably what did me in. That said, I designed my 2Q story specifically for the contest, and my readers all liked it (though I wasn't as enamored with it). Oh well, I'll know soon enough. Each quarter is a little experiment anyway. The hypothesis I tested this quarter was: Can I write interesting science fiction that someone might actually want to read? I assume an HM means "Yes." So, from that perspective the experiment was a success.
Anyway, now on to the math. Here's the old list of the entrants with the HM winners highlighted in blue.
Tina (gower21)Corbin (1xF, 2xSF, 8xHM)
Francis Bruno (1xSF)Amanda McCarter (1xSF, 1xSHM, 6xHM)
Martin Shoemaker (1xF, 1xSF, 2xHM)
Izanobu (1xSF, 2xSHM, 6xHM)Grayson (4xHM)
Marina (2xF, 2xHM)
Dustin (1xF, 2xHM)
Jennifer Hicks (1xSF, 1xSHM, 6xHM)anarresti (1xHM)
The Happy Snappy Gator (1xSF, 2xHM)
gwaschAlistairKimble (1xF, 2xHM)
DavidK (1xHM)Tara (1xHM)
Michael Kingswood(1xHM)Jess (2xHM)
The last analysis I posted suggested that assuming 1,000 entrants those on the list had a 66.7% to 71.4% chance of placing somewhere in the contest. Since then, the list has expanded by 2 people. So my prediction with 24 people was that 16-17 folks should place on the list. With 26 people, that prediction has to be adjusted to 17 - 19 to account for the additional people. So far, 13 have placed. I think it is fair to say that at least 4-6 people should place as well. That said, it is hard to make predictions using the latest results from Duotrope. because I don't know the proportion of HMs vs. straight rejections. I would be inclined to believe that all 15 reports (including the two faux acceptances and my currently unlogged rejection) are HMs. If that is the case, I think we are likely to see even more placements than the 4-6 here.
Speaking of which, does anyone know what the protocol is for logging an HM in Duotrope? My inclination is to record a "personal rejection." Please let me know so I can record my status ASAP.
In the meantime, I'm sending my story out to the next market.