*zips herself into flame-proof suit*
*gets out calculator and colored markers and begins to write equations on her side of shield while mumbling to herself*
.. assuming 1,200 entries per quarter... and an 85% rejection rate (10 - 15% HMs, folding in the 1-2% of semi and higher)...
1,200 x .85 = 1020 rejections, roughly
1020 x .01 = 10.2
So assuming these calculations are in the right ballpark, and assuming Joni's 99% figure is accurate, there are approximately 10 more rejections to be sent out.
We have 16 people waiting, and no way of knowing how many non-forum entrants there are.
*chews fingernails*
3 winners, 5 (non-winning) finalists, 10 semis and maybe 4 or 5 SHMs, so roughly 22 higher tier awards (including winners) to be distributed.
Well, heck if I know! But I would say that those of us waiting have a 2 to 1 chance of getting a higher tier award (SHM or higher) as opposed to a rejection.

ETA: Odds of HMs for those who haven't heard yet cannot be calculated due to lack of data.