Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

[hazlett]

Is it me, or is it odd that only 9 of us have heard anything so far? Eight if you count that Francis was reporting for a friend of his who doesn't post here. And no HMs yet. That seems odd to me, too. Of course, this is my first results season where I have a horse in the race, so maybe I'm just ignorant of how things go.

There are 40-odd responses on Duotrope, and the figure I read is 10 - 12 entrants who are not on Duotrope for every one response who is. So that's 400 - 500 responses so far. Maybe we're only halfway through the results? Maybe HMs are coming out all at once at the end instead of together with Rs?

Maybe I should stop obsessing?

Kary,

I ran the numbers again based on today's most recent Duotrope results. The bottom line is that I think we are about 30-50% through with the rejections. You can find all of my statistical procrastination and torture here:

http://reflectionsofarationalrepublican ... l-torture/

[george nik.]

Duotrope is a tricky thing...
It is said that there are around 1000 submissions each quarter, which it makes it 4000 per year. Also, there are 12 winners per year.
For the past 12 months Duotrope has seen 390 reports, which is about 10% of submissions.
7 of those were acceptances, which is over 50%.
So it would seem that people who report in Duotrope tend to have a much higher rate of acceptances.

Anway, there are 43 rejections now in Duotrope. If there are about 100 Duotrope reports each quarter, we are nearing 50% of results and most of us haven't heard anything.

And this might mean...?

[gwasch]

Duotrope is a tricky thing...
It is said that there are around 1000 submissions each quarter, which it makes it 4000 per year. Also, there are 12 winners per year.
For the past 12 months Duotrope has seen 390 reports, which is about 10% of submissions.
7 of those were acceptances, which is over 50%.
So it would seem that people who report in Duotrope tend to have a much higher rate of acceptances.

Anway, there are 43 rejections now in Duotrope. If there are about 100 Duotrope reports each quarter, we are nearing 50% of results and most of us haven't heard anything.

And this might mean...?

Probably means we should either be reading or writing, not crunching math or staring at emails. At this point I just.. forget about getting results unless the phone wants to ring.

Or, don't, because it means I have a better chance of winning next time. x) Assuming my Q2 is any good. I worry it's too... grimy.

There's no guarantee that the numbers are going to be on the same range every quarter anyway. Could be a flood year, could be a drought, and guessing the numbers can't make you feel much better when you're really just counting on the quality of your work. to nil.

[Martin L. Shoemaker]

No news is no news.

And no, reports from Duotrope are not news as far as your story goes, unless yours is one of the reports.

[Patrick S. McGinnity]

I've been thinking, and I could be wrong, that she is doing all the rejections first this quarter. Then she is going to sit down and read through all the rest and send out all the HMs. OR, she already has most of the HMs but is holding onto them until they're all done and can be sent out in batches, right before Semi's and Finalists are announced. *shrug* I'm guessing she's holding off on everything that isn't rejected to read later. Of course, I could be proven wrong tomorrow...

As someone who grades essays A LOT, I would have to say the "wait on all the full reads until all the quick R's are out of the way" strategy would be problematic, if I were the reader/judge, as the building pile of ones that have yet to be read closely would become daunting enough to make it harder to tackle. Also, it can get depressing giving negative grades (analogous to straight rejections? Perhaps), so finding the occasional semifinalist or finalist and enjoying it then and there would keep me going. But of course, that is just me.

[Grayson Morris]

HMS have gone out in the first wave of results in past quarters, so it seems new that only Rs have been sent so far. Of course, nothing may have changed; the forum is a tiny, statistically non-representative sample of all entrants.

[francisbruno]

HMS have gone out in the first wave of results in past quarters, so it seems new that only Rs have been sent so far. Of course, nothing may have changed; the forum is a tiny, statistically non-representative sample of all entrants.

I agree with this notion.
On the other hand, it is possible that they have decided to treat the HM's a little more special and announce them before or with the semi's.

[Sai]

I subbed on the very last day of the quarter, so my wait time at Duotrope is sitting at 76 days. Since all the rejections so far have been for people waiting 87+ days, I figure KD just hasn't gotten to my story yet. In my mind it's already rejected, not that I'm a usually pessimistic person but it just makes it easier to move on and work on the next story.

[Strycher]

so finding the occasional semifinalist or finalist and enjoying it then and there would keep me going. But of course, that is just me.

The semi's and finalist aren't an objective measurement. They are determined in relation to the quality of the pool of story that they come from. I don't think she can decide that a story is a finalist until she's reached the end of the pile.

[Martin L. Shoemaker]

so finding the occasional semifinalist or finalist and enjoying it then and there would keep me going. But of course, that is just me.

The semi's and finalist aren't an objective measurement. They are determined in relation to the quality of the pool of story that they come from. I don't think she can decide that a story is a finalist until she's reached the end of the pile.

They're semi-objective. It hasn't happened recently; but if they don't get enough worthy stories, they have named fewer than 8 finalists. Even fewer than 3 winners. So it's not just the best 8 stories, it's 8 stories good enough to publish.

[Strycher]

so finding the occasional semifinalist or finalist and enjoying it then and there would keep me going. But of course, that is just me.

The semi's and finalist aren't an objective measurement. They are determined in relation to the quality of the pool of story that they come from. I don't think she can decide that a story is a finalist until she's reached the end of the pile.

They're semi-objective. It hasn't happened recently; but if they don't get enough worthy stories, they have named fewer than 8 finalists. Even fewer than 3 winners. So it's not just the best 8 stories, it's 8 stories good enough to publish.

I don't think that information changes that she probably has to get to the end of the pile to make finalist decisions. If she decides finalists and semi as they come in, then we should all enter on the first day of the quarter. Otherwise she might have 8 finalists when she gets to our stories at the bottom of the pile. You see what I'm saying.

[francisbruno]

so finding the occasional semifinalist or finalist and enjoying it then and there would keep me going. But of course, that is just me.

The semi's and finalist aren't an objective measurement. They are determined in relation to the quality of the pool of story that they come from. I don't think she can decide that a story is a finalist until she's reached the end of the pile.

I don't think this is entirely true. They don't just pick the top eight finalists and the next 8 are semis or something like that. There is a bar that has to be reached. For example, in my semi, the only thing missing was a motivation for the antagonist. Insane computer wasn't enough. But it was good enough that she said she went back several times to see if she had missed something. (so close :( ) I think a lot of rejections are done quickly. Prose not good enough to carry the story, or fantasy/ sci fi element missing up front. Ending not satisfying. I think a lot of HM's are also quick. Prose was good, but story didn't work. Idea sound, prose not good enough. etc..

Just my thoughts.

[Strycher]

But it was good enough that she said she went back several times to see if she had missed something.

I'm saying that I don't think she selects finalists and semis as they come in. There is a decision making process that logically should happen after all the stories have been weighed.

[MJNL]

Sorry, side-stepping the current convo.

7 of those were acceptances, which is over 50%.
So it would seem that people who report in Duotrope tend to have a much higher rate of acceptances.

All 7 might not actually be acceptances. Some really new writers with really fragile egos report their HMs as acceptances because "I don't know what else to call it, a rejection just doesn't seem right." Yeah, ridiculous, I know. (We've seen this happen via reports from other forums. Some of them changed it later, some of them didn't.)

[francisbruno]

But it was good enough that she said she went back several times to see if she had missed something.

I'm saying that I don't think she selects finalists and semis as they come in. There is a decision making process that logically should happen after all the stories have been weighed.

Agreed. I think the potential finalists and semis are put in a pile as they are discovered and then later they are then ranked. I have wondered if the silver HM's might be the potential semi's if the semi count gets too big.

[Grayson Morris]

Agreed. I think the potential finalists and semis are put in a pile as they are discovered and then later they are then ranked. I have wondered if the silver HM's might be the potential semi's if the semi count gets too big.

I think something to this effect has been stated before by KD.Yes, in this (external) thread - a few snippets below:

I do the best I can with the limited amount of time I
have each quarter to get the results back to L.A. And every quarter lots of
great stories rise to the top of the pile. It's always hard to separate out
the Finalists from the Semifinalists. There's usually only a hair's difference
between them.

Sometimes it's easy to put a story in the Semifinalists pile because it has an obvious flaw. Other times, I have to go with my gut feeling and then figure out why I did that later when I write the critique. Usually there's two or three stories that I have to take out of the Finalists pile that really hurt.

The designation of Silver Honorable Mention is for the HMs that made it into the possible Finalists pile and just missed being designated Semifinalist.

[francisbruno]

Yeah! My guesses match (mostly) :)
My many years of engineering school paid off (Now to overcome it to make my writing better)

[Kary English]

That thread is a great find, Martin. Thanks for linking. And its author, Donovan, was at our David Farland workshop. :)

It's cool to recognize names like that. Though it sometimes seems that the ranks of aspiring writers are legion, I guess it's a fairly small pond after all.

[Strycher]

I think something to this effect has been stated before by KD.Yes, in this (external) thread - a few snippets

Has this link been posted in the Information Alley section before? It probably needs to be. Holy crap at all the information.

[Martin L. Shoemaker]

That thread is a great find, Martin. Thanks for linking. And its author, Donovan, was at our David Farland workshop. :)

It's cool to recognize names like that. Though it sometimes seems that the ranks of aspiring writers are legion, I guess it's a fairly small pond after all.

Great find, yes. But it was Grayson, not me.

[Kary English]

Ahh, thanks, Martin.

Kudos to Grayson, then. :)

[Patrick S. McGinnity]

so finding the occasional semifinalist or finalist and enjoying it then and there would keep me going. But of course, that is just me.

I don't think that information changes that she probably has to get to the end of the pile to make finalist decisions. If she decides finalists and semi as they come in, then we should all enter on the first day of the quarter. Otherwise she might have 8 finalists when she gets to our stories at the bottom of the pile. You see what I'm saying.

I guess I didn't mean to imply that upon finding one, it would automatically be pigeonholed as a semi or a finalist or whatever. I just meant that when you find good stuff, you know it, and it goes in the "second look" pile. My point though was that finding one of those every once in a while and enjoying it right then would make the rest of the rejection process more bearable (if I were the one reading).

[Strycher]

I guess I didn't mean to imply that upon finding one, it would automatically be pigeonholed as a semi or a finalist or whatever. I just meant that when you find good stuff, you know it, and it goes in the "second look" pile. My point though was that finding one of those every once in a while and enjoying it right then would make the rest of the rejection process more bearable (if I were the one reading).

In that post that Grayson reposted, KD says that she likes being first reader because she enjoys ferreting out the good stories, so I think you must be right.

[greenroom]

I subbed on the very last day of the quarter, so my wait time at Duotrope is sitting at 76 days. Since all the rejections so far have been for people waiting 87+ days, I figure KD just hasn't gotten to my story yet.

I also subbed (e-subbed) on the last day, and I also figure that -- though there may be outliers -- the rejections for submitters from the last week or two of last quarter just haven't gone out yet.

I think if I'd submitted electronically at the start of last quarter, rather than the tail end, I'd have my hopes up now, but as it stands, I just figure I have yet to survive my time frame's batch rejection.

[MedicalAuthor]

I subbed on the very last day of the quarter, so my wait time at Duotrope is sitting at 76 days. Since all the rejections so far have been for people waiting 87+ days, I figure KD just hasn't gotten to my story yet.

I also subbed (e-subbed) on the last day, and I also figure that -- though there may be outliers -- the rejections for submitters from the last week or two of last quarter just haven't gone out yet.

I think if I'd submitted electronically at the start of last quarter, rather than the tail end, I'd have my hopes up now, but as it stands, I just figure I have yet to survive my time frame's batch rejection.

Based on Duotrope, these are my thoughts as well. If I had to guess, I'd say us last-minute submitters will be including in next week's batch (assuming the batches go out on a weekly basis, which seems to be the case).

Between waiting on this, Clarion, and various other publications to get back to me, I'm sure my blood pressure is being permanently affected.

[francisbruno]

I don't think they go by order received. I submitted on 12/30. A friend submitted on 12/31. He was rejected in the first round. It's either random, or levels of the sniff test. I suspect the latter as he didn't put in the sci-fi/ fantasy element up front.

[greenroom]

I don't think they go by order received. I submitted on 12/30. A friend submitted on 12/31. He was rejected in the first round. It's either random, or levels of the sniff test. I suspect the latter as he didn't put in the sci-fi/ fantasy element up front.

That's why I mentioned outliers -- though I like the idea of a sniff test as I was a bit unsure if I had enough of the sci-fi element up front in the story I submitted last quarter. Of course, at this point, I doubt almost everything about the story I submitted last quarter.

[francisbruno]

I don't think they go by order received. I submitted on 12/30. A friend submitted on 12/31. He was rejected in the first round. It's either random, or levels of the sniff test. I suspect the latter as he didn't put in the sci-fi/ fantasy element up front.

That's why I mentioned outliers -- though I like the idea of a sniff test as I was a bit unsure if I had enough of the sci-fi element up front in the story I submitted last quarter. Of course, at this point, I doubt almost everything about the story I submitted last quarter.

I believe somewhere it has been mentioned that the initial check is the first few paragraphs and the last few. That is what I call the sniff test.
- Is the prose 'pro'
- is there sci/fi or fantasy up front
- does the story end logically/ it doesn't end a love story when starting out about a galactic war.

Just my guess.

[s_c_baker]

Wow, good stuff in that link. Active viewpoint characters seems to be a stickler.

[AMcCarter]

From conversations I've had, I know there have been a few times when K.D. pegged a finalist from the get go. I would love to be in that pile.